Iran Will Get the Bomb
I’ve had several emails this week asking me if I thought Israel was going to attack Iran. Here’s what I honestly think is going to happen:
Israel probably won’t attack, but it doesn’t matter. Whether they do or don’t, Iran is still going to get the bomb. They’ve got way too much money and power not to be able to get it, and every time someone sabre-rattles at them the price of oil goes up and they get more money and more power. In short, a nuclear-armed Iran is a foregone conclusion. The real question is, what happens then?
In the US-Soviet Cold War, there was always the notion of Mutually-Assured-Destruction to keep each side in check. Back then the two powers involved played out their wars through small battles in other countries because they knew that full-scale war meant that everyone was going to be blown to bits. As the Soviets were atheists and the Americans were essentially secular capitalists, their own death was too high a price to pay for their ideology.
That is not the case in the Middle-East.
Whether the first strike is for Allah or the Promised Land is irrelevant. The minute it’s announced that Iran has a nuke, the region is on a non-stop trip to radioactivity. It may take a month or a couple years, but sometime soon the people with their finger on the button are going to make the decision that God has given them this power in order to use it. In their mind the sin would be in failing to live up the responsibility that their Creator has laid on their shoulders.
That’s not to say that all (or even most) of the Middle-East wants this. In fact, I think most of them just want to feed their kids, get along, and not have their homes and schools blown up every two years or so. The problem is that the people who
believe in divine providence are the same people that believe that they should be in charge. While most folks are going to be busy trying to scrape out a living, the religious nutbars (from all sides) will be working hard to get their fingers on that button.
When I explain all this to people they invariable ask me “What can we do to stop it?” The answer (as near as I can see) is nothing. As long as religion is allowed to run rampant, it’s going to happen. Good and decent people will vote in extremist idiots because they believe that religious zeal equals good leadership. It’s the same the world over, but in the Middle East the results are about to become far more dire than they’ve ever been.
It’s going to go boom, and it’s gonna happen in our lifetime. The best we can hope for is a low-yield that doesn’t contaminate the ionosphere.
author of “The Heathen’s Guide to World Religions”
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